The current Public Test Realms for Dragonflight Patch 10.1.5 is soon coming to an end, which might indicate a potential release of this new Patch very soon. We are diving again into some speculation about the next release.
As per usual, we are using past-data to speculate an upcoming release of Patch 10.1.5 with the following information:
Blizzard’s previous Roadmap, posted many months ago has indicated a release of Dragonflight Patch 10.0.5 in Winter, and Patch 10.0.7 in Spring.
We have previously speculated correctly about the recent Releases of Patch 10.0.5 and 10.0.7, but speculated Patch 10.1 to release a week later then it actually did.
Patch 10.1.5 is now scheduled for Summer this year, but 10.1.7 is about to be released in Fall 2023. A meteorological begin of Fall is starting on September 1st. Considering this Roadmap, we can further speculate about the future releases of Dragonflight Patch 10.1.7 and even Patch 10.2.
In the past, even in Shadowlands, a regular Test Phase for any upcoming Patch was between 6-8 Weeks. Especially large Content Updates took up to 8 Weeks, while smaller Patches like x.5 and x.7 took only 6 Weeks after their opening.
Patch 10.0.5 PTR
Patch 10.0.7 PTR
Patch 10.1 PTR
With this data in mind, we can already speculate that Patch 10.1.5 is once again in the regular 6-8 Week Testing period. The PTR for Patch 10.1.5 has started on May 17th, 2023. This would put the expected time of release between June 28th to July 12th. Keep in mind that Patch 10.1.5 has already been announced on May 12th which is a Thursday.
During Shadowlands, an Affix Rotation consisted of 12 Weeks, which was rotated alteast twice before another Content Update. This caused a Season to last around 6 months. Blizzard has been improving since then, and also reduced the the amount of Affixes that rotate throughout a Season.
Dragonflight Season 1 released on December 14th, 2022. Dragonflight Patch 10.1 released on May 3rd, 2023. This was exactly 20 Weeks after.
This could indicate that the release of Dragonflight Patch 10.2 might be 20 Weeks after the launch of Dragonflight Patch 10.2 – September 27th, 2023 and a start of Dragonflight Season 3 on October 4th.
Phase 3 of Wrath Classic is starting on June 20th, with the Trial of Crusader opening two days later on June 22nd. We would usually consider that Blizzard does not overlap new Releases on both versions of the game quickly after each other. A six week PTR cycle of Patch 10.1.5 would point towards June 27th, 2023, which would be just one week after the launch of Phase 3. We highly assume that, as with Patch 10.0.7, this PTR would still last 7 Weeks instead of 6, which would put the Release Date of Patch 10.1.5 just two weeks after the upcoming Wrath Classic launch.
With all of the presented information in mind, we try again our speculation on upcoming releases, which have proven almost accurate in the past. Almost in that context means that we missed the Release Date of Patch 10.1 by almost two weeks, which released earlier then expected. This is because of the grace period granted after each major Content Update before the Season launches. Obviously, there are no complains about Blizzard releasing content earlier then expected, which is in favor of many players that experience a content drought much quicker then others.
We would current speculate the Release Date Patch 10.2 on September 27th, 2023 with Season 3 starting on October 4th. This would be around 8 Weeks after the speculated release of Patch 10.1.7 on August 17th, 2023. This once again would be just 6 Weeks after the Release of Patch 10.1.5 on July 5th, 2023.
Bear mind that the PTR for Patch 10.1 has launched before the release of Patch 10.1.7. This caused the official Patch releases to be just 6 Weeks apart, while a regular PTR cycle of 8 Weeks was achieved.
All of this is just our personal speculation, and is not based on any information given by Blizzard. It’s for your personal entertainment only, and should always be looked at with a certain amount of doubt.